Imwe nguva yapfuura, Yellen akashanyira China, anonzi anotakura akawanda e "mabasa", vezvenhau vekunze kuti vamubatsire kupfupikisa rimwe rawo: "kutendeudzira vakuru veChinese kuti United States muzita rekuchengetedzwa kwenyika kudzivirira China kubva pakuwana tekinoroji yakaoma semiconductors uye akateedzana matanho haana kuitirwa kukanganisa hupfumi hweChina."
Zvanga zvave muna 2023, United States yakatanga kurambidzwa kweChinese chip indasitiri kwave kusingasviki gumi nemaviri kutenderera, rondedzero yemabhizinesi makuru uye vanhu vanopfuura zviuru zviviri, zvakapesana zvinogonawo kugadzira chikonzero chakakura kudaro, chinobata, ingori "iye chaiye, ndinochema kufa."
Zvichida veAmerica pachavo havana kukwanisa kuzviona, izvo zvakakurumidza kurohwa nechimwe chinyorwa muNew York Times.
Mazuva mana mushure mekunge Yellen abva kuChina, Alex Palmer, mutori wenhau anozivikanwa weChina munharaunda yezvekune dzimwe nyika, akaburitsa Chinyorwa paNYT ichitsanangura iyo US chip blockade, iyo yakanyorwa zvakananga mumusoro: Ichi chiitiko cheHondo.
Alex Palmer, akapedza kudzidza kuHarvard uye wekutanga Yanjing Scholar paPeking University, agara achifukidza China, kusanganisira Xu Xiang, fentanyl uye TikTok, uye muzivikanwi wekare akarwadzisa manzwiro evanhu veChinese. Asi akaita kuti vekuAmerica vamuudze chokwadi nezve chip.
Muchinyorwa ichi, mumwe mupinduri akataura pachena kuti "kwete chete isu hatizobvumiri China kufambira mberi mune tekinoroji, isu tichadzoreredza nhanho yavo yazvino yetekinoroji" uye kuti kurambidzwa kweiyo chip "chaikoshera kupedza iyo China yese yepamusoro tekinoroji ecosystem."
Vanhu vokuAmerica vakatora shoko rokuti “kuparadza,” iro rinowirirana nerevo ye“kutsakatisa” uye “kudzurwa,” uye rinowanzonongedzerwa pamberi peutachiona hwechibhokisi kana kuti zvikwata zvemishonga zveMexico. Iye zvino, chinangwa chezwi iindasitiri yeChina yepamusoro-tech. Kana matanho aya akabudirira, anogona kukanganisa kufambira mberi kweChina kwechizvarwa, vanyori vanofanotaura.
Chero ani zvake anoda kubata ukuru hwehondo anongoda kutsenga izwi rekuti bvisa kakawanda.
01
Hondo iri kuwedzera
Mutemo wemakwikwi uye mutemo wehondo zvinhu zviviri zvakasiyana zvachose.
Makwikwi ebhizinesi makwikwi ari mukati mehurongwa hwemutemo, asi hondo haina kufanana, mupikisi anenge asina hanya nechero mitemo uye zvirambidzo, achaita chero chinhu kuti vazadzise zvinangwa zvavo. Kunyanya mumunda wemachipisi, United States inogona kutogara ichichinja mitemo - iwe unogadzirisa kune imwe seti, yakabva yatsiva seti nyowani yekutarisana newe.
Semuenzaniso, muna 2018, US Department of Commerce yakabvumira Fujian Jinhua nenzira ye "entity list", izvo zvakakonzera zvakananga kune yekupedzisira kumiswa kwekugadzira (iyo yatangazve basa); Muna 2019, Huawei akaverengerwawo muchikamu chesangano, achirambidza makambani eAmerica kupa zvigadzirwa nemasevhisi kwairi, senge EDA software uye Google's GMS.
Mushure mekuona kuti nzira idzi hadzigone "kubvisa" zvachose Huawei, United States yakashandura mitemo: kubva muna Chivabvu 2020, yakatanga kuda kuti makambani ese anoshandisa tekinoroji yeAmerica ape Huawei, senge TSMC's foundry, izvo zvakakonzera kumisa kweHisiculus uye kudonha kwakanyanya kwenharembozha dzeHuawei, zvichiunza anopfuura bhiriyoni zana emadhora ekurasikirwa kweChina gore rega rega.
Mushure meizvozvo, manejimendi eBiden akawedzera chinangwa chemoto kubva ku "bhizinesi" kuenda ku "indasitiri", uye nhamba huru yemabhizinesi eChinese, mayunivhesiti uye masainzi ekutsvagisa sainzi akaverengerwa muhurongwa hwekurambidzwa. Musi wa7 Gumiguru, 2022, Dhipatimendi reCommerce reUS Bureau yeIndasitiri neChengetedzo (BIS) yakapa mirau mitsva yekudzora kunze kwenyika iyo inenge yakananga "ceiling" pamaChinese semiconductors:
Logic chips pazasi 16nm kana 14nm, NAND chengetedzo ine 128 layers kana kupfuura, DRAM akasanganiswa maseketi ane 18nm kana zvishoma, nezvimwewo anorambidzwa kunze kwenyika, uye machipisi emakomputa ane computing simba rinopfuura 4800TOPS uye yekubatanidza bandwidth inopfuura 600GB / s zvakare inorambidzwa kutengesa zvakananga kana zvigadzirwa zvinowanikwa.
Mumashoko eWashington think tank: VaTrump vari kunanga mabhizinesi, ukuwo Biden ari kurova maindasitiri.
Pakuverenga bhuku reDambudziko reMiviri Mitatu, zviri nyore kuti vaverengiwo zvavo vanzwisise Yang mo yeZhizi kuvhara tekinoroji yePasi; Asi chaizvoizvo, apo vanhu vakawanda vasiri indasitiri vanotarisa chip ban, vanowanzova nemafungiro: chero bedzi iwe uchiteerera mitemo yeUnited States, iwe haungatariswi; Kana uchinge wanangidzirwa, zvinoreva kuti wakanganisa.
Maonero aya akajairika, nekuti vanhu vazhinji vachiri mu "makwikwi" chimiro chepfungwa. Asi mu“hondo,” pfungwa iyi ingava yenhema. Mumakore achangopfuura, vatungamiriri vazhinji ve semiconductor vakaratidza kuti kana bhizinesi rakazvimirira tsvakiridzo nekusimudzira parinotanga kubatanidzwa muminda yepamusoro (kunyangwe ichangotanga tsvakiridzo), ichasangana neasingaoneki gasi madziro.
Tsvagiridzo nekuvandudzwa kwemachipisi epamusoro-soro kunoenderana neseti yepasi rose tekinoroji yekugovera cheni, senge kugadzira 5nm SoC machipi, iwe unofanirwa kutenga macores kubva kuArm, kutenga software kubva kuCandence kana Synopsys, kutenga patents kubva kuQualcomm, uye kuronga kugona kwekugadzira neTSMC ...
Imwe nyaya ndeye chip kambani inove nemugadziri wenhare mbozha, iyo yakavhura tsvagiridzo nekusimudzira tsigiro muTaiwan kukwezva matarenda emunharaunda kuita vatengi-giredhi machipisi, asi munguva pfupi yakasangana ne "kuferefeta" kweakakodzera madhipatimendi eTaiwan. Mukupererwa, mubatsiri uyu akarukwa kubva kuna amai semutengesi akazvimiririra kunze kwemuviri, asi yaifanira kungwarira.
Pakupedzisira, mubatsiri weTaiwanese akamanikidzwa kuvhara mushure mekurwiswa ne "vachuchisi" veTaiwanese vakapamba uye vakatora maseva ayo (hapana kutyora kwakawanikwa). Uye mushure memwedzi mishoma, kambani yevabereki yakangotora danho rekuputsa - manejimendi epamusoro akaona kuti pasi pekurambidzwa kwekuchinja, chero iri chirongwa chepamusoro-soro, pane njodzi ye "kudzvanya-kamwe zero."
Chokwadi, kana bhizinesi risingafungidzike richisangana nemugoveri mukuru anofarira moat yeMaoxiang tekinoroji, mhedzisiro yacho inorasika.
Uku kugona "kudzvanya-kamwe zero" ndiko kuti United States yakashandura "chikamu cheindasitiri chepasi rose chinoenderana nekutengeserana kwemahara" chakamboteverwa kuita chombo kurwisa muvengi. Nyanzvi dzeAmerica dzakauya nezwi rekuti weaponized interdependence to sugarcoat maitiro aya.
Pashure pokunge vaona zvinhu izvi zvakajeka, zvakawanda zvezvakambonetsa hazvikoshi kuti zvikurukurwe. Semuenzaniso, hapana chikonzero chekurasa Huawei yekutyora kurambidzwa kweIran, nekuti yakataurwa zvakajeka kuti "Iran ingori chikonzero"; Izvo zvine musoro kupomera China nezvegwaro remaindasitiri, zvichipihwa kuti United States iri kushandisa madhora mabhiriyoni makumi mashanu nematatu kupa rubatsiro rwekugadzira chip uye kukurudzira kudzoreredza.
Clausewitz akamboti, "Hondo ndiko kuenderera mberi kwezvematongerwo enyika." Zvimwe chete nehondo dzechip.
02
Iyo blockade inoruma kumashure
Vamwe vanhu vachabvunza: United States saka "nyika yose kurwisa", hapana nzira yekugadzirisa nayo?
Kana iwe uchitsvaga iyo rudzi rwemashiripiti ekunyengera kuputsa muvengi, hazvisi. Computer sainzi pachayo akaberekerwa muUnited States, kunyanya Integrated redunhu indasitiri, rimwe divi kushandisa nzira hondo kuridza kodzero kutaura maindasitiri cheni, China anogona chete kutora nguva yakareba kukunda kubva kumusoro uye zasi zvishoma nezvishoma, inova muitiro refu.
Zvisinei, hazvisi zvechokwadi kutaura kuti "chiito chehondo" ichi hachina migumisiro uye inogona kushandiswa kwenguva yakareba. Mhedzisiro yakakura yeUS chikamu-yakavharika blockade ndeiyi: inopa China mukana wekuvimba nemaitiro emusika, pane simba rakawanda rekuronga, kugadzirisa dambudziko.
Mutsara uyu ungaite sewakaoma kunzwisisa pakutanga. Tinogona kutanga kunzwisisa chii simba rakachena kuronga, semuenzaniso, mune semiconductor indasitiri, pane inokosha chirongwa kutsigira huru hwokugadzira tsvakurudzo, inonzi "yakakura zvikuru chiyero Integrated redunhu kugadzira michina uye nzira yakakwana", indasitiri inowanzonzi 02 inokosha, yakachena mari mari.
02 inokosha makambani akawanda akatora, apo munyori akanga ari semiconductor mari, apo tsvakurudzo kambani akaona zvakawanda "02 inokosha" akasiya prototype, pashure kuona manzwiro akavhenganiswa, sei kutaura? Midziyo mizhinji yakaturikwa muimba yekuchengetera zvinhu ndeye grey ruoko, pamwe chete kana vatungamiriri vekuongorora vanozoburitswa kunze kunokwenenzvera.
Ehe, iyo 02 yakakosha purojekiti yakapa mari yakakosha kumabhizinesi munguva yechando panguva iyoyo, asi kune rumwe rutivi, kubudirira kwekushandiswa kwemari iyi hakuna kukwirira. Kuvimba nerubatsiro rwemari chete (kunyangwe kana rubatsiro rwuri mabhizinesi), ndinotya kuti zvakaoma kugadzira matekinoroji uye zvigadzirwa zvinogona kuiswa mumusika. Chero ani akamboita tsvakurudzo anoziva izvi.
Pamberi pehondo dzechip, China yaive nemidziyo yakawanda inonetsekana, zvishandiso uye makambani madiki chip ainetsekana kukwikwidzana nevamwe vavo vekune dzimwe nyika, uye makambani akaita seSMIC, JCET uye kunyange Huawei kazhinji aisavateerera zvakanyanya, uye zviri nyore kunzwisisa chikonzero nei: vaisazoshandisa zvigadzirwa zvemumba pavakakwanisa kutenga zvigadzirwa zvekunze zvakakura uye zvinodhura.
Asi kuvharirwa kwaitwa neUnited States muindasitiri yemachips yekuChina kwaunza mukana usingawanzo kumakambani aya.
Panyaya yekuvharwa, vagadziri vepamba vaimbove vasina kufuratirwa nemachira kana akavharwa bvunzo zvidyarwa vakamhanyiswa kumasherufu, uye huwandu hukuru hwemidziyo uye zvinhu zvakatumirwa mumutsetse wekugadzira kuti uongororwe. Uye kusanaya kwemvura kwenguva refu nekunaya kwemafekitari madiki emumba kwakangoerekana kwaona tariro, hapana akashinga kutambisa uyu mukana unokosha, saka vakashandawo nesimba kuvandudza zvigadzirwa.
Kunyangwe uku kuri kutenderera kwemukati kwekushambadzira, kumanikidzwa kubuda mukushambadzira, asi kugona kwayo kunoshandawo kupfuura simba rekuronga rakachena: bato rimwe resimbi moyo kune kutsiva mudzimba, rimwe bato richibata mashanga, uye muSainzi neTekinoroji bhodhi hupfumi hwakafemerwa neiyo semiconductor kumusoro kwerukova kunenge kwese kwakamira seg kune makambani mazhinji muhuwandu.
Isu takaverenga purofiti yemakambani ekuChina akanyorwa semiconductor mumakore gumi apfuura (makambani ane makore gumi ekuita zvinoramba achisarudzwa anosarudzwa), uye tichaona maitiro akajeka ekukura: makore gumi apfuura, purofiti yemakambani epamba aya yaingodarika mabhiriyoni matatu, uye pakazosvika 2022, purofiti yavo yese yakapfuura 33,4 bhiriyoni, makore angangoita gumi apfuura.
Nguva yekutumira: Oct-30-2023
