Imwe nguva yapfuura, Yellen akashanyira China, anonzi anotakura "mabasa" mazhinji, vezvenhau vekunze kuti vamubatsire kupfupisa rimwe rawo: "kuita kuti vakuru veChinese vabvume kuti United States muzita rekuchengetedza nyika kudzivirira China kuwana. tekinoroji inonzwisisika yakaita semiconductors uye akateedzana matanho haana kuitirwa kukuvadza hupfumi hweChina. "
Zvanga zvave 2023, United States yakatanga kurambidzwa kweChinese chip indasitiri yave isingasviki gumi nemaviri kutenderera, rondedzero yezvinyorwa zvemabhizinesi makuru uye vanhu vanopfuura zviuru zviviri, zvakapesana zvinogonawo kugadzira chikonzero chakakura kudaro, chinobata. , zvinongoti “iye chaiye, ndinochema kusvikira parufu.”
Zvichida veAmerica pachavo havana kukwanisa kuzviona, izvo zvakakurumidza kurohwa nechimwe chinyorwa muNew York Times.
Mazuva mana mushure mekunge Yellen abva kuChina, Alex Palmer, mutori wenhau anozivikanwa weChina munharaunda yezvekune dzimwe nyika, akaburitsa Chinyorwa paNYT ichitsanangura iyo US chip blockade, iyo yakanyorwa zvakananga mumusoro: Ichi chiitiko cheHondo.
Alex Palmer, akapedza kudzidza kuHarvard uye wekutanga Yanjing Scholar paPeking University, agara achifukidza China, kusanganisira Xu Xiang, fentanyl uye TikTok, uye muzivikanwi wekare akarwadzisa manzwiro evanhu veChinese. Asi akaita kuti vekuAmerica vamuudze chokwadi nezve chip.
Muchinyorwa ichi, mumwe mupinduri akataura pachena kuti "kwete chete isu hatizobvumiri China kufambira mberi mune tekinoroji, isu tichashinga kudzoreredza nhanho yavo yazvino yetekinoroji" uye kuti kurambidzwa kwechip "chaizvoizvo zvekupedza chose China chepamusoro tekinoroji ecosystem. ”
Vanhu vokuAmerica vakatora shoko rokuti “kuparadza,” iro rinowirirana nerevo ye“kutsakatisa” uye “kudzurwa,” uye rinowanzonongedzerwa pamberi peutachiona hwechibhokisi kana kuti zvikwata zvemishonga zveMexico. Iye zvino, chinangwa chezwi iindasitiri yeChina yepamusoro-tech. Kana matanho aya akabudirira, anogona kukanganisa kufambira mberi kweChina kwechizvarwa, vanyori vanofanotaura.
Chero ani zvake anoda kubata ukuru hwehondo anongoda kutsenga izwi rekuti bvisa kakawanda.
01
Hondo iri kuwedzera
Mutemo wemakwikwi uye mutemo wehondo zvinhu zviviri zvakasiyana zvachose.
Makwikwi ebhizinesi makwikwi ari mukati mehurongwa hwemutemo, asi hondo haina kufanana, mupikisi anenge asina hanya nechero mitemo uye zvirambidzo, achaita chero chinhu kuti vazadzise zvinangwa zvavo. Kunyanya mumunda wemachipisi, United States inogona kutogara ichichinja mitemo - iwe unogadzirisa kune imwe seti, yakabva yatsiva seti nyowani yekutarisana newe.
Semuenzaniso, muna 2018, US Department of Commerce yakabvumira Fujian Jinhua nenzira ye "entity list", izvo zvakakonzera zvakananga kune yekupedzisira kumiswa kwekugadzira (iyo yatangazve basa); Muna 2019, Huawei akaverengerwawo muchikamu chesangano, achirambidza makambani eAmerica kupa zvigadzirwa nemasevhisi kwairi, senge EDA software uye Google's GMS.
Mushure mekuona kuti nzira idzi hadzigone "kubvisa" zvachose Huawei, United States yakachinja mitemo: kubva muna Chivabvu 2020, yakatanga kuda kuti makambani ese anoshandisa tekinoroji yeAmerica ape Huawei, senge TSMC's foundry, iyo yakanangana nekumira kweHisiculus. uye kuderera kwakanyanya kwenharembozha dzeHuawei, zvichiunza kurasikirwa kwemabhiriyoni zana emayuan kumaindasitiri eChina gore rega rega.
Mushure meizvozvo, manejimendi eBiden akawedzera chinangwa chemoto kubva ku "bhizinesi" kuenda ku "indasitiri", uye nhamba huru yemabhizinesi eChinese, mayunivhesiti uye masainzi ekutsvagisa sainzi akaverengerwa muhurongwa hwekurambidzwa. Musi wa7 Gumiguru, 2022, Dhipatimendi reCommerce reUS Bureau yeIndasitiri neChengetedzo (BIS) yakapa mirau mitsva yekudzora kunze kwenyika iyo inenge yakananga "ceiling" pamaChinese semiconductors:
Logic chips pazasi 16nm kana 14nm, NAND chengetedzo ine 128 layers kana kupfuura, DRAM akasanganiswa maseketi ane 18nm kana pasi, nezvimwewo anorambidzwa kutengeswa kunze kwenyika, uye machipisi emakomputa ane simba recomputing rinopfuura 4800TOPS uye yekubatanidza bandwidth inodarika 600GB/s zvakare inorambidzwa kupa. , ingave yekutanga kana kutengesa zvakananga zvezvigadzirwa.
Mumashoko eWashington think tank: VaTrump vari kunanga mabhizinesi, ukuwo Biden ari kurova maindasitiri.
Pakuverenga bhuku reDambudziko reMiviri Mitatu, zviri nyore kuti vaverengiwo zvavo vanzwisise Yang mo yeZhizi kuvhara tekinoroji yePasi; Asi chaizvoizvo, apo vanhu vakawanda vasiri indasitiri vanotarisa chip ban, vanowanzova nemafungiro: chero bedzi iwe uchiteerera mitemo yeUnited States, iwe haungatariswi; Kana uchinge wanangidzirwa, zvinoreva kuti wakanganisa.
Maonero aya akajairika, nekuti vanhu vazhinji vachiri mu "makwikwi" chimiro chepfungwa. Asi mu“hondo,” pfungwa iyi ingava yenhema. Mumakore achangopfuura, vatungamiriri vazhinji ve semiconductor vakaratidza kuti kana bhizinesi rakazvimirira tsvakiridzo nekusimudzira parinotanga kubatanidzwa muminda yepamusoro (kunyangwe ichangotanga tsvakiridzo), ichasangana neasingaoneki gasi madziro.
Tsvagiridzo uye kusimudzira machipisi epamusoro-soro kunoenderana neseti yepasi rose tekinoroji yekugovera cheni, senge kugadzira 5nm SoC machipisi, unofanirwa kutenga macores kubva kuArm, kutenga software kubva kuCandence kana Synopsys, kutenga patent kubva kuQualcomm, uye kuronga. kugona kugadzira neTSMC… Chero bedzi zviito izvi zvichiitwa, vanopinda mundima yechiratidzo chekutarisa kweBIS kweUS Department of Commerce.
Imwe nyaya ndeye chip kambani inove nemugadziri wenhare mbozha, iyo yakavhura tsvagiridzo nekusimudzira tsigiro muTaiwan kukwezva matarenda emunharaunda kuita vatengi-giredhi machipisi, asi munguva pfupi yakasangana ne "kuferefeta" kweakakodzera madhipatimendi eTaiwan. Mukupererwa, mubatsiri uyu akarukwa kubva kuna amai semutengesi akazvimiririra kunze kwemuviri, asi yaifanira kungwarira.
Pakupedzisira, mubatsiri weTaiwanese akamanikidzwa kuvhara mushure mekurwiswa ne "vachuchisi" veTaiwanese vakapamba uye vakatora maseva ayo (hapana kutyora kwakawanikwa). Uye mushure memwedzi mishomanana, kambani yevabereki vakangotorawo danho rekuputsa - manejimendi epamusoro akawana kuti pasi pekurambidzwa kwekuchinja, chero bedzi iri purojekiti yepamusoro-soro, kune njodzi ye "kudzvanya-kamwe zero. ”
Chokwadi, kana bhizinesi risingafungidzike richisangana nemugoveri mukuru anofarira moat yeMaoxiang tekinoroji, mhedzisiro yacho inorasika.
Uku kugona "kudzvanya-kamwe zero" ndiko kuti United States yakashandura "chikamu cheindasitiri chepasi rose chinoenderana nekutengeserana kwemahara" chakamboteverwa kuita chombo kurwisa muvengi. Nyanzvi dzeAmerica dzakauya nezwi rekuti weaponized interdependence to sugarcoat maitiro aya.
Pashure pokunge vaona zvinhu izvi zvakajeka, zvakawanda zvezvinhu zvakambonetsa hazvikoshi kuti zvikurukurwe. Semuenzaniso, hapana chikonzero chekurasa Huawei yekutyora kurambidzwa kweIran, nekuti yakataurwa zvakajeka kuti "Iran ingori chikonzero"; Izvo zvine musoro kupomera China nezvegwaro remaindasitiri, zvichipihwa kuti United States iri kushandisa madhora mabhiriyoni makumi mashanu nematatu kupa rubatsiro rwekugadzira chip uye kukurudzira kudzoreredza.
Clausewitz akamboti, "Hondo ndiko kuenderera mberi kwezvematongerwo enyika." Zvimwe chete nehondo dzechip.
02
Iyo blockade inoruma kumashure
Vamwe vanhu vachabvunza: United States saka "nyika yose kurwisa", hapana nzira yekugadzirisa nayo?
Kana iwe uchitsvaga iyo rudzi rwemashiripiti ekunyengera kuputsa muvengi, hazvisi. Computer sainzi pachayo akaberekerwa muUnited States, kunyanya Integrated redunhu indasitiri, rimwe divi kushandisa nzira hondo kuridza kodzero kutaura maindasitiri cheni, China anogona chete kutora nguva yakareba kukunda kubva kumusoro uye kudzika zvishoma. by bit, inova nzira refu.
Zvisinei, hazvisi zvechokwadi kutaura kuti "chiito chehondo" ichi hachina migumisiro uye inogona kushandiswa kwenguva yakareba. Mhedzisiro yakakura yeUS chikamu-yakavharika blockade ndeiyi: inopa China mukana wekuvimba nemaitiro emusika, pane simba rakawanda rekuronga, kugadzirisa dambudziko.
Mutsara uyu ungaite sewakaoma kunzwisisa pakutanga. Tinogona kutanga kunzwisisa chii simba rakachena kuronga, semuenzaniso, mune semiconductor indasitiri, pane yakakosha purojekiti yekutsigira yakakura hunyanzvi tsvakiridzo, inonzi "yakakura kwazvo inosanganiswa yedunhu rekugadzira tekinoroji uye nzira yakakwana", iyo indasitiri inowanzonzi. 02 yakakosha, yakachena mari mari.
02 inokosha makambani akawanda akatora, apo munyori akanga ari semiconductor mari, apo tsvakurudzo kambani akaona zvakawanda "02 inokosha" akasiya prototype, pashure kuona manzwiro akavhenganiswa, sei kutaura? Midziyo mizhinji yakaturikwa muimba yekuchengetera zvinhu ndeye grey ruoko, pamwe chete kana vatungamiriri vekuongorora vanozoburitswa kunze kunokwenenzvera.
Ehe, iyo 02 yakakosha purojekiti yakapa mari yakakosha kumabhizinesi munguva yechando panguva iyoyo, asi kune rumwe rutivi, kubudirira kwekushandiswa kwemari iyi hakuna kukwirira. Kuvimba nerubatsiro rwemari chete (kunyangwe kana rubatsiro rwuri mabhizinesi), ndinotya kuti zvakaoma kugadzira matekinoroji uye zvigadzirwa zvinogona kuiswa mumusika. Chero ani akamboita tsvakurudzo anoziva izvi.
Pamberi pehondo dzechip, China yaive nemidziyo yakawanda yainetsekana, zvinhu uye makambani madiki echipi ainetsekana kukwikwidzana nevamwe vavo vekune dzimwe nyika, uye makambani akaita seSMIC, JCET uye kunyange Huawei kazhinji aisavateerera zvakanyanya, uye zviri nyore kunzwisisa kuti nei. : vaisazoshandisa zvigadzirwa zvemumba ivo vachigona kutenga zvinhu zvekunze zvakakura uye zvisingadhuri.
Asi kuvharirwa kwaitwa neUnited States muindasitiri yemachips yekuChina kwaunza mukana usingawanzo kumakambani aya.
Panyaya yekuvharwa, vagadziri vepamba vaimbove vasina kufuratirwa nemachira kana akavharwa bvunzo zvidyarwa vakamhanyiswa kumasherufu, uye huwandu hukuru hwemidziyo uye zvinhu zvakatumirwa mumutsetse wekugadzira kuti uongororwe. Uye kusanaya kwemvura kwenguva refu nekunaya kwemafekitari madiki emumba kwakangoerekana kwaona tariro, hapana akashinga kutambisa uyu mukana unokosha, saka vakashandawo nesimba kuvandudza zvigadzirwa.
Kunyangwe uku kuri kutenderera kwemukati kwekushambadzira, kumanikidzwa kubuda mukushambadzira, asi kugona kwayo kunoshandawo kupfuura simba rekugadzirisa rakachena: bato rimwe resimbi moyo kutsiva mudzimba, bato rimwe richibata mashanga, uye mune sainzi uye tekinoroji. board rich effect yakafemerwa ne semiconductor upstream ingangoita yese vertical segment kune akawanda makambani muvhoriyamu.
Isu takaverenga purofiti yemakambani ekuChina akanyorwa semiconductor mumakore gumi apfuura (makambani chete ane makore gumi ekuenderera mberi akasarudzwa), uye isu tichaona yakajeka kukura maitiro: 10 makore apfuura, iyo yakazara purofiti yemakambani epamba aya yaive. vanopfuura mabhiriyoni matatu chete, uye pakazosvika 2022, purofiti yavo yose yakapfuura 33,4 bhiriyoni, inopeta ka10 kupfuura yemakore gumi apfuura.
Nguva yekutumira: Oct-30-2023
